December 9, 2018

Momentum Investing

Source: Investopedia

An investment strategy that aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. The momentum investor believes that large increases in the price of a security will be followed by additional gains and vice versa for declining values.


More like moving with the market trends than value investing (based on fundamental analysis).

Double Up

Source: Investopedia

An investing strategy in which a trader doubles his or her current position in an asset when an adverse price movement occurs. By doubling the risk, the trader hopes to earn a larger return when the security moves in a favorable direction.


When executing a double-up strategy, the investor believes that the latest adverse price fluctuation is only temporary and will shortly correct itself. To capitalize on the price reversal, the investor amplifies his or her current position. Doubling up is a risky strategy, but it can yield large returns.

Contrarian

Source: Investopedia

An investment style that goes against prevailing market trends by buying assets that are performing poorly and then selling when they perform well.


Contrarian investing also emphasizes out-of-favor securities with low P/E ratios.


Buck the Trend

When a security goes against the prevailing trend of the overall market.

Source: Google search (source wasn't recorded at time of reading)

Disparity Index

Source: Investopedia

A technical indicator that measures the relative position of the most recent closing price to a selected moving average and reports the value as a percentage. A value greater than zero suggests that the asset is gaining upward momentum, while a value less than zero can be interpreted as a sign that selling pressure is increasing.


Extreme values of this indicator can be a very useful tool for contrarian investors to foretell periods of exhaustion.

Monoline

A business that focuses on operating in one specific financial area. The main advantage of this structure is that these companies have specialized skills and provide expertise beyond what can usually be expected.


For example, monoline insurers give investors and issuers the confidence to participate in the market by providing liquidity and financial protection. Without fully understanding the entire system and how it all comes together, a company is unable to provide its customers with quality service. Due to the expertise that monoline companies have in the industry, they are able to reduce operating cost, enhance customer service and evaluate/manage risk much more efficiently.

Source: Google search (source wasn't recorded at time of reading)

Liquidity

Source: CBS News

1. The degree to which an asset or security can be bought or sold in the market without affecting the asset's price. Liquidity is characterized by a high level of trading activity.


2. The ability to convert an asset to cash quickly. Also known as "marketability".

Distribution Day

In every market top you'll see a series of days in which the indexes close lower on higher volume than the prior session. That's called a distribution day.The higher volume is a sign that institutional investors — the market's major force — are selling shares. It becomes an alarm when several distribution days pile up over four weeks or so.


Distribution days are a sign of market tops.

Source: Google search (source wasn't recorded at time of reading)

Alternate Minimum Tax (ATM)

The Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) adjusts your tax liability to recapture some tax benefits. AMT is an alternative method for calculating your taxes. The regular income tax uses your adjusted gross income (AGI), then subtracts your standard deduction or itemized deductions, and then subtracts your personal exemptions, to arrive at taxable income. To calculate AMT, you start with your AGI, and then add or subtract any adjustments allowed under AMT rules, to arrive at taxable income for AMT purposes. You then calculate your AMT tax at a 26% or 28% tax rate.
Because AMT does not allow the standard deduction, personal exemptions, or certain itemized deductions, your tax under AMT rules may be higher than your tax under regular tax rules.
Generally, AMT may apply to individuals earning more than $40,250. AMT also applies to people who have a large amount of standard or personal exemptions, exercised incentive stock options, who take a net operating loss deduction, who have certain other types of income, or claimed certain business-related tax credits.


Source: Google search (source wasn't recorded at time of reading)


Back-end and Front-end ratio

Source: Investopedia


Back-end Ratio

 A ratio that indicates what portion of a person's monthly income goes toward paying debts. Total monthly debt includes expenses such as mortgage payments (made up of PITI), credit-card payments, child support and other loan payments. Lenders use this ratio in conjunction with the front-end ratio to approve mortgages.
Back-end Ratio = Total Monthly Debt Expense
                          ------------------------------------------
                                Gross Monthly Income



Front-end Ratio

A ratio that indicates what portion of an individual's income is used to make mortgage payments. It is calculated as an individual's monthly housing expenses divided by his or her monthly gross income and is expressed as a percentage. Monthly gross income is simply annual income divided by 12 (months). Lenders use the front-end ratio in conjunction with the back-end ratio to approve mortgages.

Front-end Ratio = Monthly Housing Expense
                          ---------------------------------------
                                 Gross Monthly Income






December 7, 2018

% Difference of Close from the highest Close for S&P 500

The highlighted is the  highest Close which happened in September 2018. Source: finance.yahoo.com

DateOpenHighLowCloseVolume% Difference from highest CloseData is
11/1/17         2,583.20996              2,657.73999               2,557.44995           2,584.84009 95 Billion                              11.2952 Monthly
12/1/17         2,645.10010              2,694.96997               2,605.52002           2,673.61011 65 Billion                                 8.2489 Monthly
1/1/18         2,683.72998              2,872.87012               2,682.36011           2,823.81006 77 Billion                                 3.0944 Monthly
2/1/18         2,816.44995              2,835.95996               2,532.68994           2,713.83008 80 Billion                                 6.8686 Monthly
3/1/18         2,715.21997              2,801.89990               2,585.88989           2,640.87012 76 Billion                                 9.3724 Monthly
4/1/18         2,633.44995              2,717.48999               2,553.80005           2,648.05005 70 Billion                                 9.1260 Monthly
5/1/18         2,642.95996              2,742.23999               2,594.62012           2,705.27002 76 Billion                                 7.1624 Monthly
6/1/18         2,718.69995              2,791.46997               2,691.98999           2,718.37012 77 Billion                                 6.7128 Monthly
7/1/18         2,704.94995              2,848.03003               2,698.94995           2,816.29004 65 Billion                                 3.3525 Monthly
8/1/18         2,821.16992              2,916.50000               2,796.34009           2,901.52002 69 Billion                                 0.4276 Monthly
9/1/18         2,896.95996              2,940.90991               2,864.12012           2,913.97998 62 Billion                                         -     Monthly
10/1/18         2,926.29004              2,939.86011               2,603.54004           2,711.73999 91 Billion                                 6.9403 Monthly
11/1/18         2,717.58008              2,815.14990               2,631.09009           2,760.16992 80 Billion                                 5.2783 Monthly
12/1/18         2,790.50000              2,800.17993               2,621.53003           2,695.94995 14 Billion                                 7.4822 Monthly
        
12/3/18         2,790.50000              2,800.18000               2,773.38000           2,790.370004 Billion                                 4.2420 Daily
12/4/18         2,782.43000              2,785.93000               2,697.18000           2,700.060004 Billion                                 7.3412 Daily
12/6/18         2,663.51000              2,696.15000               2,621.53000           2,695.950005 Billion                                 7.4822 Daily


Box chart representation



11 sectors of the stock market

Death cross and Golden cross

In Technical Analysis, a Death cross happens when the short term moving average crosses long term moving average and goes below it. This is seen as the start of a bearish market (but is not always the case based on historical trends)

A Golden cross happens when short term moving average crosses long term moving average and goes above it. This is seen as the beginning of bullish market.

See the S&P 500 index over years as an example. The short term is 50 day moving average and long term is 200 day moving average. Source: finance.yahoo.com












An hourly trend during 12/6-12/7/2018 shows formation of the crosses. Source: finance.yahoo.com











Read this marketwatch.com article on 12/7: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-dow-coming-close-to-a-death-cross-really-means-for-stocks-2018-12-06

December 6, 2018

Long vs Short trade

Simple defintions:

Long Trade or Buy means the investor is buying stocks with the expectation that the value will go up in future.













Short Trade or Sell means the investor is borrowing stocks from a Broker and selling it to another investor with the expectation of value going down. Once the stocks value decrease, the investor buys back from market and return to Broker.

S&P 500 index with 50 and 200 day moving average on Dec 6, 2018

Source: finance.yahoo.com




Goldilocks economy

Found a good definition at https://www.thebalance.com/goldilocks-economy-definition-causes-effects-3305932:

>>
A Goldilocks economy is when growth isn't too hot, causing inflation, nor too cold, creating a recession. It has an ideal growth rate of between 2-3 percent, as measured by GDP growth. It also has moderately rising prices, as measured by the core inflation rate. The Federal Reserve has set this target inflation rate at two percent.

This healthy economy is named after the famous children's story, Goldilocks and the Three Bears. The little girl only ate the bear's porridge that was neither too hot nor too cold. Like the porridge, the Goldilocks economy is one that is "just right."
<<

Teradata - Ways to find queries executed

select * from dbc.qrylogsql
where collecttimestamp=date
and sqltextinfo like '%customer_tb%' -- table name

December 4, 2018

Treasury Yield Curve Inversion

Stock markets plunged on December 4th, 2018 on the fears that the gap between long-term and short-term treasury yields is narrowing.

In general the 10-year yield should be much above 2-year. The narrowing shows that investors are loosing confidence in the current economic conditions and parking money in long-term bonds. With more investment in long-term bonds, the supply-demand ratio changes pushing down the yield lower.





An inversion of the gap/spread is an indicator of recession. This was reason for the market crash. Ref: https://www.forextraders.com/forex-news/are-you-aware-of-our-most-accurate-leading-indicator-of-economic-peril/




In addition there are other indicators that long-term yields are going lower that short-term. See the spread between 3yr to 5yr yields on 12/3 as compared to 11/20.



Treasury Yield

Treasury yields are basically the rate investors are charging the U.S. Treasury for borrowing money. Treasury issues T-Bill, T-Notes or T-Bond in exchange for the money.

source: investopedia